College Hockey Inc. has logged every professional signing after each NCAA season since 2010-11. The fact that the advocacy group is not recoiling from the recent spike in student-athletes leaving school early backs the trend better than anything.
Of the six on record, the 2016 offseason has routed the rest in terms of non-seniors accepting deals in the NHL, KHL, AHL or even ECHL.
As eligible returnees reconvene on their respective campuses this month, 43 players representing 23 programs and all six conferences are not among them. When Paul LaDue and Luke Johnson bolted North Dakota on April 29, the mark had already eclipsed last year’s tally of 33, the previous high for the 2010s.
That’s right, on April 29. Not even three full weeks after LaDue and Johnson partook in UND’s Frozen Four victory.
While only six other players have since forfeited remaining eligibility, the sum still amounts to more than a 50 percent uptick from the 2011 offseason. Five years ago, a mere 26 would-be returnees to the NCAA hockey landscape pounced on professional offerings.
Overall, this trend lends exponential support to CHI’s slogan that NCAA hockey is “The logical path to the NHL.”
In an e-mail to Pucks and Recreation, CHI executive director Mike Snee declared the groundswell of pre-graduation pacts “…a reflection of the caliber of player currently playing college hockey and the high success rate that college hockey players are having in the NHL and in other levels of professional hockey.”
To that point, this century’s two most consistent contenders for national glory epitomize this escalating exodus. Coming off seven Frozen Four appearances in 11 years, Boston College has brooked 2016’s greatest overhaul with seven departures. The national champion Fighting Hawks — they of a peerless 14 straight tournament berths — have seen five early exits.
UND’s championship opponent, Quinnipiac, had a subsequent mixed milestone in its program. Rather than seek redemption in 2017, juniors Sam Anas and Devon Toews became the first Bobcat twosome to turn pro early in the same year.
Those 14 players shifted to the pucks-for-bucks lane with the afterglow of a national spotlight still following them. Five of those Eagles, four of those Hawks and both Bobcats made their decision before April was over. Ditto Denver’s Danton Heinen, who made an unscheduled swan song of his sophomore season finale in the national semis.
This drift illuminates the profile of their respective schools and the programs therein. Already a revolving door by nature, the college system is yielding coveted talent at a quicker pace, or at least to more quickly appreciative eyes.
Professional organizations are seeing time-honored and new-wave NCAA hockey brands alike generate greater batches of battle-tested clutch capstones. They are trusting that these top-shelf prospects are ready to leave the amateur incubator sooner.
Furthermore, Snee noted, the rising head count does not reflect any drastic change in ratio as to how many academic years a new pro completes. According to CHI, as of last year, 73 percent of NCAA products in the NHL were upperclassmen when they signed out. A whopping 40 percent completed their undergraduate studies before their professional debuts.
Just in this past offseason, 31 of the 43 dropouts have completed three years on campus.
“One- or two-year players like Jack Eichel and Kyle Connor receive a lot of attention,” Snee said, “but most early departures have spent three years developing in school and progressing toward their degrees.”
“The numbers also suggest that at least three years of college hockey is still very much the norm for the vast majority of college hockey players that will experience success in the NHL,” he added. “For every Joe Pavelski or Dylan Larkin, there are several Johnny Gaudreaus and Colton Paraykos.”
Still, Minnesota’s Kyle Rau and Harvards’ Jimmy Vesey are recent alternate examples.
Rau’s skill set was poised for new challenges in Florida’s system by the time his Gophers lost the 2014 national final. But with one more opportunity to pursue an NCAA trophy, he pushed the former off.
Likewise, Vesey was all but a shoo-in for his eventual Hobey Baker triumph when he eschewed a pact with the Predators last summer. He expressly wanted to complete his undergraduate studies in the conventional timeframe, and help the Crimson build on the foundation they had set in 2014-15.
As a bonus, Vesey’s extended presence in the NCAA ranks made a magnet of every game for prospective viewers. Even while pushing through that inherently revolving door, individuals still sell this game. They embody and enliven the tradition of marquee programs or build that of up-and-coming destinations.
Does this mean the majority of the top-shelf elites are sending a detrimental message when they do not make like Rau or Vesey? By hinting that one’s already finite stay on campus is worth terminating for immediate gratification in the form of a potential one- or two-decade odyssey in the pros?
“On the surface, a handful of the players that leave school early each year may appear to be making a premature decision that is not in their best interest,” Snee granted. “However, each student-athlete’s decision to return to school or sign a professional contract is based on their own individual set of circumstances.
“Most importantly, the handful of early departures does not appear to be affecting college hockey’s standing as one of the most successful academic sports in all of NCAA Division I men’s athletics.
“The current graduation rate for college hockey is 90 percent, and that includes players like Anders Lee, Chris Kreider, Nick Bjugstad and David Backes – all NHL players that left school early, yet recently earned their degrees.”
There you go. Many hockey prodigies who surrender a limited opportunity to represent a college on the ice still appreciate the founding purpose of their alma mater. They are actively aware that, unlike NCAA trophies and banners, degrees are not off limits to those who play for pay.
As long as plenty of legacies are upholding a mutual appreciation with their respective schools, what is the harm in curtailing a college hockey career when the time comes to try a different level?
For the game and its individual programs, it just means more room, more excitement and less waiting for the next high-flier.
Leave a Reply